SBox Soapbox: Super Smash Bros. 4 Character Probability (Part 4 | Results Edition)

Well, the day has finally come. The game Super Smash Bros for 3DS has just released in Japan. That means that our period of speculation is over. No more guesses, no more hopes, no more predictions, and no more analysis. There is now only fact. Every character has been found and confirmed. We have a grand total of 50 characters, which consists of about 15 newcomers. A pretty sizable amount for a Smash Bros game.

It’s times like this we can breathe a sigh of relief as we compare the actual product to the several hundred dream rosters we have been sharing for the past year and change. As you may be aware, I have made 6 (now 7) blog posts about this very game, 3 of which were actual character predictions. In those 3 posts, I listed a bunch of highly requested or heavily discussed characters for this installment of the game, and ranked each’s probability via a percent rating. Like many, some of them I got right, and some I got wrong.

Today I revisit those lists for the final time as I grade my accuracy. It’s funny to look back on these and see how much I was off or spot-on about. Let’s just see how on the ball I was. This will basically be a short overview of the numerous characters I discussed, as well as my thought on their inclusion/exclusion.


Rating: 95%
Status: In

I can’t believe there was even question of Ness returning. All the naysayers talking about how Lucas would replace him, and that Earthbound was too obscure. The original 12 remain constant, and I’m extremely glad. Ness is one of my favorite characters and it’s good to see him back.

Rating: 60%
Status: Out

I was already having my doubts towards the end, especially when I saw all of the doubts associated with Ness. That extra 10% was merely a sign of hope more than realism. I’ll admit I’m very disappointed. Lucas was my main in Brawl and I was really hoping with the announcement of Dark Pit, Dr Mario, Lucina and Alph that Sakurai would consider Lucas to return. I can’t say I blame him though.

Rating: 95%
Status: In

Similar to Ness, Jigglypuff is of the original 12 which guaranteed its admission. Not a big fan of the character, but she is a series staple despite relevance or representation. She is also very popular among certain crowds, particularly in Japan. I’m glad to see her back, I guess.

Rating: 90%
Status: In

Falco was way too popular to be cut from the game. He’s not only highly-popular but he’s also high-tier. There would be riots if Falco of all characters was cut. Good to see him back, too.

Rating: 25%
Status: Out

As I said before, it seemed to me that it was either Falco or Wolf to stand beside Fox. Wolf just wasn’t too popular even in Brawl. I was never exactly a fan of this character, but I’m sorry for those who really enjoyed him.

Rating: 70%
Status: In

I think everyone knew this guy would make it in of all people. Wario is a very fun character to use and by his own presence. We were so sure about his inclusion we were starting to speculate a second Wario character like Ashley. Glad he’s here!

Rating: 85%
Status: In

People were stating to get worried about good old Ganondorf, but most of us knew he’d prevail. Theories of him being changed to Ganon or replaced by another villain were a bit too far fetched, even when Captain Falcon was announced. I’m glad to see him, but I hope they changed some of his moves.

Rating: 50%
Status: In

It was very much one way or the other for me. ROB was kind of popular but also kind of mocked. Not too many people were campaigning for him either, but no one exactly wished him ill, either. I’m satisfied because ROB was actually pretty cool.

Mr. Game & Watch
Rating: 70%
Status: In

Curse that Pac-Man trailer trying to derail me. I originally was going to place him at 60%, but came up with the theory that no character makes an appearance in a Smash Bros trailer unless their playable. And I was right. Game & Watch is my little brother’s main, so it’s good to see him.

Ice Climbers
Rating: 60%
Status: Out

This one was a really difficult one. The Ice Climbers are very popular characters, too. I’m still scratching my head as to why they aren’t in the game. People argued technical difficulties and may be correct; but what about Rosalina & Luma? It’s a shame they didn’t make it.

Rating: 25%
Status: Out

Snake was already being questioned from the start. Phantom Pain wasn’t coming to Wii U, Kojima said up-front that he didn’t know his fate, and Sakurai already said that there weren’t going to be many third-party characters coming. So when Pac-Man was announced, the writing was already on the wall. I liked Snake, but I understand why he’s gone.

Squirtle and Ivysaur
Probability Rating: 10%
Status: Out

If these two were in the game, they would’ve been announced with Charizard and Greninja. They didn’t even come back as pokeballs, which I find surprising. I’m not too sad that they’re gone, but I thought it would be cool to see them back.

Meta Knight
Rating: 90%
Status: In

Already talked about my thoughts on Meta Knight before, but it bares repeating that there was no way in hell he was getting cut. I liked him, too. So good for me and one of my younger brothers who mains him.

Newcomers (1st Party)

Probability Rating: 90%
Status: Still Out

This is shocking as all hell. No one can deny that Mewtwo was Smash Bros request #1. There was no one who thought he wasn’t getting in… and we were all wrong. I’m not as disappointed as other people might be, but I did want to see him in. On the bright side, he’s a shoe-in for DLC.

Probability Rating: 85%
Status: No

This was another surprise but not on the same scale as Mewtwo. He’s the most controversial character choice in the Smash community, so there are plenty of reasons why he didn’t make the cut… But dat shadow tho! I hoped he would just be in so everyone can be happy.

Probability Rating: 35%
Status: No

Saw this one coming. You don’t have to be in the Nintendo community too long to know that Krystal has a good amount of hate on her. I would’ve liked to see what they could do, especially with Wolf cut, but I there’s always next time.

King K. Rool
Probability Rating: 20%
Status: No

I see exactly why K. Rool isn’t in the game. He’s irrelevant. I don;t mean Duck Hunt Dog or Pit irrelevant, but continuity-wise. He was a popular choice among Donkey Kong fans, but not by too many others. Maybe next time, as long as he gets in the next DKC.

Bowser Jr.
Probability Rating: 45%
Status: In

Finally, a newcomer I was right about for the most part! I should’ve said 50%, but whatever. Rosalina gave a lot of people doubt anyway. I’ll admit he came back in a way I didn’t see coming. I look forward to trying out his copter-based move-set.

Probability Rating: 40%
Status: No

I do believe Zelda needs a newcomer, and that hasn’t changed. I guess Sakurai felt differently though. All well, I’m not exactly torn up about it.

Probability Rating: 70%
Status: In

Don’t even deny it, I was on-the-ball with this one. This one is above 50%, so go me! I already discussed my Shulk-related feelins in another post, so go check that one out. Overall, I’m happy.

Wonder Red
Probability Rating: 75%
Status: Trophy

Wow, not even an assist trophy? Come on, he at least deserves that much; I don’t care how little Wonderful 101 sold. I’ll take a hit here, because I knew he was already a trophy and put him at a high percent anyway.

Dixie Kong
Probability Rating: 50%
Status: No

If any DK character had a higher chance of entering, it was her. Though I’m not too sad about that because she wouldn;t provide that much to the roster in my opinion.

Cranky Kong
Probability Rating: 30%
Status: No

Why did I even… huh! I don;t even know why I gave him 30%, he was more like a 10%.

Dark Pit
Probability Rating: 60%
Status: In

That puts me at 3 for 7 so far. No one makes just a cameo in a Smash Bros trailer, especially by name like Dark Pit did. Not too excited about him, but cool for Kid Icarus fans.

Paper Mario
Probability Rating: 70%
Status: No

I can’t believe this one. I love Dr Mario, but if there was gonna be a Mario clone it should’ve been Paper. He was such a cool idea.

Probability Rating: 85%
Status: No

A minor shock, because Isaac was a really cool choice. My sympathies to Golden Sun fans, because it should’ve been represented on the roster, too.

Chorus Men
Probability Rating: 60%
Status: No

That makes the Gematsu leak about 80% correct. Honestly that was the only reason anyone was discussing them as a fighter. No feelings on this one, but this is likely DLC.

Newcomers (2nd & 3rd Party)

Probability Rating: 15%
Status: No

People were only hoping with Geno. Very few people epected him to make it in with all the copyright drama. I will admit that it would’ve been nice to see him in this fashion.

Professor Layton
Probability Rating: 80%
Status: No

I guess I’m not too surpirsed. Even I didn;t know what to do with him even if he was a consideration. Maybe he’d make a good assist trophy.

Probability Rating: 55%
Status: Still Just A Trophy

My theory is wrong. Nintendo totally would just get the rights to Rayman just to make him a trophy… WHY?

Probability Rating: 30%
Status: Out

This was a hope and nothing more. Had a bit of credibility, but looking back, if Nintendo was gonna talk with Square, they’d get Geno before Sora. Still, I’d love to see Sora in the game. (Maybe even just to join Rayman).

Simon Belmont
Probability Status: 40%
Status: No

I said it before. If Nintendo was going to talk to Konami, they’d probably get Snake before Simon. But Snake isn’t even in, so he had even less of a chance. Pity. There still is no whip-weilders on the roster either, and I think a lot of people would’ve been happy to see him.

Ryu Hayabusa
Probability Rating: 40%
Status: No

I thought Ryu was a more likely choice among my 3rd party candidates, and would totally play as him. Alas, that was just me hoping again. Maybe next time?

Scrooge McDuck, Goku and Steve & Blue
Probability Rating: (Over 9,000%)
Status: Trololololol

Lolololol! I sing like an angel.

The Unaccounted For

And here we talk about characters I didn’t even see coming who made it in anyway

Dr. Mario

Cool enough! In terms of Melee returns I would’ve picked Mewtwo. In terms of Mario clones I would’ve picked Paper Mario. But I feel better about it now than I did previously. Clones don;t take away from the roster- they only add.

Duck Hunt Dog

Why are people hating this idea. I think it’s awesome! This is what I call a pleasant surprise! I can’t wait to try him out.


Technically this is just a costume, but he’s still a different character name. Why he isn’t in his own slot like Sheik and Zero Suit Samus? I don’t know. I’m indifferent to it because, it’s just Olimar.


I like this roster for what it is. We have a ton of new characters, and, for the most part, everyone who needed to be back came back. From this roster, I plan my main to be Ness since I no longer have Lucas. And I am most looking forward to playing Pac-Man because I love Pac-Man.

I’ll close this off with an anecdote of hope. As many have pointed out from leakers, to rumor patrol, to the speculation station, there is plenty of room left on the roster for DLC. In a way, this probably isn’t final. Who will it be? I predict there will be between 4-6 more and I predict from any of the following: Mewtwo, Lucas, Ridley, Ice Climbers, Snake, Dixie Kong, Wolf and Chorus Men. I’ll report back when I find out about the potential DLC.

Total Correct (Above or at 40% and In/Below 40% and Out): 21

Total Incorrect (Above 40% and Out/Below or at 40% and In): 11

My Accuracy Score: 66% 🙂

Hey, a D is still passing right?

What are your thoughts on the Super Smash Bros roster? How was your accuracy compared to the final product? Which characters are you looking forward to playing? Who will be your main fighter? And do you think there will be DLC? Let me know in the comments!

I’m SBox180. Thanks for reading!

(2100 words? I’ve officially gone insane!)

2 thoughts on “SBox Soapbox: Super Smash Bros. 4 Character Probability (Part 4 | Results Edition)”

    1. I agree. I’m interested in trying Duck Hunt Dog, as well. Such an oddball choice, but it’s crazy enough to work. And thanks for the complement! I’m glad you liked it. 🙂


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