SBox Soapbox: Super Smash Bros. 4 Character Probability (Part 3 | 100 Views Edition)

It is true. As of August 6, 2014 at around 1:56 PM, The Ranting SBox blog has reached its 100th view. You guys have no idea how shocked I am of this news. I mean, this is only week 4 for this blog, and just a couple days ago I was making a thank you update celebrating 50 views.

Sincerely to everyone reading this or who has read anything I wrote even once, thank you from the bottom of my circulatory organ. It’s an honor to be worth your click and your attention, and I hope that I can continue to be worth your presence on this blog in the future. This is something I never thought would happen to me this early, so thank you.

To celebrate, it is abundantly clear to me that my most popular content are my two posts on Super Smash Bros for 3DS and Wii U. In those 2 posts I discussed characters who were not yet confirmed to be in the game both veterans and newcomers, and measured their probability of getting in the final games. I always meant to make another post on the subject, so what better a time than now.

This will be yet another post of discussing potential newcomers. I know I only scratched the surface the first time around. This time I dug a little deeper trying to find more characters people want to see. I will be discussing a few more of the newcomers, and this time I am not going to just skim over the 3rd party characters. Even though I highly doubt any more third-party characters besides Snake will get in at this point, I will judge them this time on each character’s own personal merit.

As before, probability is marked by a percentage and brief explanation of my reasoning. I am only discussing a handful of highly requested characters, so please forgive me for leaving some out. These are merely my opinions, so don’t worry if you don’t agree. Let’s lastly note that the game is a little more than a month away in Japan, so time is a factor in my choices.

So let’s one last time look at where some of these characters stand now.

Wonder Red (Probablity 75%)

I’m surprised this character hasn’t been announced sooner. Not only is Wonderful 101 a recent game with representation on the Wii U, but the move-set potential is limitless. You don’t even have to show the 101 army at all. Just let him morph into the gun, fist, anvil or whatever. You can also have the Blue and Green variants as alternate costumes just like the Wii Fit Trainer, Robin and Villager have male and female variants. This is actually a good concept for a character. I guess Nintendo themselves are a bit bitter about Wonderful 101 not selling well. So while I think Wonder Red is totally possible and there’s no reason to not have him in, maybe they just don’t feel it doesn’t need much representation outside of a trophy.

Dixie Kong (Probablity 50%)


I left her out of the first time because I really didn’t have much hope for Dixie at first. I personally don’t see where Sakurai could go with this character that would be too different from Diddy Kong. I don’t think her hair abilities are enough to make an entire move-set, and I don’t want her to be a Diddy Klone (get it?). However, the more I think about it, I really don’t see how that’s a problem. Clones have always been a thing in Smash Bros, and this game already has a Lucina and Toon Link. That’s why I believe now that Dixie Kong has more of a chance. Whether she gets in or not is anyone’s guess, but she’s probably the one to bet on.

Cranky Kong (Probability 30%)

People either want or expect Cranky Kong to be in the game. I personally would be indifferent to it if it proves true. He was in DKC: Tropical Freeze along with Diddy and Dixie, and Nintendo does seem to like this guy. Anyone remember when Cranky Kong in Tropical Freeze was the “big announcement” at VGX? He could bring some variety in his move-set with that cane of his and high jumps. I put him at a lower possibility for one reason. If there is going to be a new Donkey Kong character, would you honestly pick Cranky over Dixie or King K. Rool (who I already discussed)?

Dark Pit (Probability: 60%)

At first I took that cameo in the Pauletina trailer as just a cameo. It occurred to me, though that no character gets a “cameo” in a Smash Bros trailer. If they are in a trailer they are visible somehow, kind of like Tom Nook being a final smash and Toon Link as an interchangeable background character. That means that Dark Pit is in the game somewhere and I’m willing to bet that playable character isn’t a bad guess. Like I said, being a clone of Pit means nothing for his chances.

Paper Mario (Probablity: 70%)

Paper Mario would not be a Mario clone. Dr. Mario was a Mario clone. Paper Mario has much more move-set potential in that he has abilities, weapons, and moves different from Mario in Smash Bros. He has the hammer, badges, stickers and paper qualities like folding into a paper airplane. He would be an excellent character, ecstatically different to everyone on the roster so far. His chances are helped by the announcement of a Paper Mario stage, but that doesn’t mean much. Hanenbow had a stage and no character in Brawl. Plus with Rosalina there are technically 5 Mario characters already confirmed, and Mario has never had more than 5 before. I have a feeling he can get in, but I won’t hold my breath.

Professor Layton (Probablity: 80%)

I never played the Professor Layton games, but I actually do like the idea. I feel every Nintendo franchise should get a character, and Professor Layton is deserving. Cutscenes suggest there’s probably something of a move-set that can be made. Personally I don’t know what to do with him, but I have no doubt Sakurai can’t figure something out. His chances do seem high as those games are extremely popular and the franchise currently has no trace in the game so far.

Isaac (Probablity: 85%)

Similar to Professor Layton, I never played Golden Sun. I think that Isaac has enough of a fan demand to make it in, and he is technically a Nintendo character. However, unlike Layton, Isaac has a very clear move-set working for him. He was already an assist trophy in Brawl, so we know he can use “Move” and other Psynergy spells somehow. And of course there’s the sword. I guess now that I think about it, he would sound a lot like Robin. Either way, he has a good chance.

Chorus Men (Probablity: 60%)

This is one of the last two shreds of hope that the Gematsu leak has. I already covered Shulk before. Rhythym Heaven is another Nintendo game I never played. To be honest I think the Chorus Men are going to be assist trophies. If they were kind of wrong about Chrom they can be kind of wrong here. I wasn’t sure how this would work, but the fan suggestions sound interesting. People are suggesting a rhythm based move-set with notes dictating damage output. I’d actually be for them in that case. I’m not going to place money down on it, but they definitely are there somewhere.

Rayman (Probability: 55%)

Don’t think I’m crazy just yet. I know he was already announced as just a trophy for the game. But let’s take a step back and look at this. Nintendo contacted Ubisoft. Ubisoft not only gave the permission to use Rayman, but made a 3D model just for Nintendo. And you honestly believe that Rayman is only in the game to stand there and look pretty? What would be the point of even having him then? He should at least make him an assist trophy, but he’s not. Nintendo wouldn’t just contact Ubisoft and pay for the rights to a character they’ll barely use. If he really becomes playable that’s great! I will throw Rabbids at my foes as Rayman.

Sora (Probability: 30%)

I’m stretching here, but let’s be honest that Sora would be quite a cool addition. Kingdom Hearts has an incredible presence on Nintendo handhelds, and Square Enix hasn’t been represented yet. There’s no one better to place in from Square Enix simply because most of their other franchises are barely present on Nintendo consoles. Sora has plenty of moves to implement from his Keyblade to his magic. Now, the one thing holding Sora back: Disney. Disney plays a big part in Sora’s character and moves, and I don’t need to explain to you why Disney is quite the obstacle. Though if they can strip Disney references from his move-set, then maybe he has a chance.

Belmont (Probability: 40%)

Realistically, it’s either Snake or a Belmont at this point. Not only has Sakurai stated there are only a few third-party slots left, but if they put 2 Konami characters that’s unfair to Capcom, Sega and Namco. It would be possible that Snake could be replaced by a Castlevania character, though. The series’ roots are with Nintendo, and to this day Castlevania has relevancy on Nintendo hardware. The whip explains itself along with the power-ups. If they do get in I would go with Simon, but any of them can work.

Ryu Hayabusa (Probability: 40%)

I want Ryu in the game. Smash Bros needs more ninjas besides Sheik. Ryu has a great Nintendo history and managed to stick with Nintendo by putting the first version of Ninja Gaiden 3: Razor’s Edge on Wii U as a launch title. Tecmo and Team Ninja don’t have representation in Smash Bros yet, either. And he’d be such an awesome character with his Ninpo and various weapons. You can even make him customization with what weapon he wields. I’m not sure if they’d actually go through with it, but here’s hoping for Ryu at least as an assist trophy.

Scrooge McDuck (Probability: 10%)

Why do I include him here? Because I personally think Scrooge McDuck would be an absolute beast in the game. I know I’m not the only one who thinks him and that cane have potential. Yeah, I know he’s impossible because of Disney and because of Capcom already having Mega Man. I just put it out there because why the hell not? I want to place Mario in the money vault and have Scrooge dive for a swim. Make it happen!

Goku (Probability: 2%)


And there is the rest of my predictions for the upcoming Super Smash Bros. for 3DS and Wii U. Let me know in the comments if you agree with any of my predictions and if I left anyone out that you’d like me to discuss. I’m all for the discussion as the game draws closer.

For those of you who read this far, you deserve an award. So here is a picture to make you smile.

I’m SBox180. Thanks for reading!


4 thoughts on “SBox Soapbox: Super Smash Bros. 4 Character Probability (Part 3 | 100 Views Edition)”

  1. Congrats on the view!

    I agree it would be cool for Sora to be added to the list. Especially considering Kingdom Hearts 3 is on the way. But, then again, it isn’t going to be on the Wii U.


    1. I agree. Kingdom Hearts 3 plays a big part in his chances. You could argue that Metal Gear Solid was never on the Wii, and that didn’t stop Snake. Though if Snake doesn’t get in this time, it’s understandable because of Phantom Pain also not coming to Wii U.


  2. I forgot about Snake, that is a perfect example of the situation.I read on The Escapist earlier this year, that Snake is very unlikely. Kojima said he has had no input with the game.

    We also may take into account, the reason Snake was in Brawl, was do to Kojima begging for it. Or so Masahiro Sakurai claims for the reason being.


    1. Interesting. I also heard that when Kojima was approached with the question of Snake’s inclusion he said he hasn’t even discussed the matter with Sakurai. That’s also suspicious.

      I still believe that Snake is the most likely third party character to be in. I mean Kojima has trolled us before.


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