SBox Soapbox: Super Smash Bros. 4 Character Probability (Veteran edition)

The roster from Super Smash Bros. Brawl.

Welcome back to the Sbox Soapbox!

They say with change comes consequence. Sometimes in order to move forward you have to leave some things behind. These are good morals for life in general, but you can make the same argument with Super Smash Bros. for 3DS and Wii U. While all the excitement is around which newcomers will make it in the game, there’s still something to be said for veterans who won’t.

This is Part 2 to my previous post about Smash Bros, where I covered potential newcomers. Now I think it’s time to discuss the veterans’ chances. Like last time, I will run through currently unannounced characters and measure their odds of returning via a percent rating and provide an explanation. Note that this will only cover veterans from Brawl; not from Melee. (Mewtwo was already discussed in Part 1).

Let us begin!

Ness (Probability: 95%)

Ness practically has a golden ticket to this next game. Ness is of the original 12, and those 12 characters are constants throughout the series. That alone puts his chances quite high. I’d place him at 100%, if not for a couple of variables. Earthbound is a very obscure franchise nowadays. Some also think that he could be shelved for Lucas. However, relevancy has never mattered in Smash Bros, and Ness is diverse enough from Lucas to qualify.

Lucas (Probability: 60%)

Speaking of which, Ness’s chances are boosted by Lucas’s fewer chances. Let me make it clear that Lucas was my main fighter in Brawl, and I freaking NEED him in SSB4. Compared to Ness though, Lucas doesn’t have that much of a chance. He’s not impossible to believe, but Lucas isn’t as popular as Ness. There could be a non-verbal majority I’m not seeing, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he went. However, Lucas is moderately popular and diverse enough from Ness.

Jigglypuff (Probability: 95%)

Like Ness, Jigglypuff is a near-guarantee due to him also being in the original 12. Almost no part of me denies that Jigglypuff will return. The only way he’d be out is if Sakurai had to pick between him and Mewtwo; a scenario I find unlikely. Rest assured Jigglypuff fans. He’ll be in the game.

Falco (Probability: 90%)

Falco will get in due to popularity alone. He’s one of the most loved characters in Brawl and Melee and is even a tournament favorite. There’s also another Star Fox game on the way for him to promote. The only doubt I have is that another Star Fox character takes his place. Even that I find unlikely, because Falco is most likely more popular than the alternative.

Wolf (Probability: 25%)

While we’re talking Star Fox, let’s talk about Wolf. I think Wolf is most likely to sit this one out. He was never really that popular in Brawl and there’s not much about him worth placing him in over. He’s a decent character, but not a favorite. He very well could make it in, but I don’t see it happening.

Wario (Probability: 70%)

Wario was such a weird character in Brawl, but it worked. I know people who really enjoy this guy and seeing him not make it would just confuse me. I guess he wasn’t the best character in Brawl, but he has a lot of popularity.

Ganondorf (Probability: 85%)

You know how many Zelda fans would go into a frenzy if Ganondorf gets canned? I’m completely certain that Ganondorf will make it into the game with just one doubt to me. Ganondof needs a new move-set. Even in Brawl he resembled Captain Falcon too much. Rest assured that he’s going to make it in… if not another villain.

R.O.B. (Probability: 50%)

To me, it goes either way with ROB. He’s right in the middle when it comes to popularity and he was okay in Brawl. There’s no evidence that could lead one way or the other, so I really don’t know what his chances are. Guess we’ll see what happens.

Mr. Game & Watch (Probability: 70%)

Mr. Game & Watch is a tricky one. He probably wouldn’t be so tricky if Sakurai didn’t tease him in the Pac-Man reveal. Maybe he was just there to pass the baton over to Pac-Man as many say, but to me there would be no reason to show Game & Watch if he wasn’t going to be in. Plus, he’s a very popular character.

Ice Climbers (Probability: 60%)

Strangely, the Ice Climbers are nowhere to be seen. Barely anyone brings the Ice Climbers up, either. I’m not sure whether people just expect them to be in by default, or no one really cares one way or the other. I’ll lean a bit more on them being included just because of a hunch.

Snake (Probability: 25%)

This method of thinking comes from Sarkurai’s comment of not putting too many third-party characters in. I don’t know if there’s too many people who would be bothered if he doesn’t make it in, but he’s not a bad choice. It doesn’t help that Phantom Pain isn’t coming to Wii U, though.

Squirtle and Ivysaur (Probability: 10%)

I think that if these two or the Pokemon Trainer were to be playable at all, they would’ve been announced with Charizard during the April Direct; especially since they said alter egos and companions are separate now. I don’t have faith in them being announced standalone either, because there’s already a lot of Pokemon.

Meta Knight (Probability: 90%)

I’ve been told by some that Meta Knight was their favorite character in Brawl. Whether you agree with them or not, that just goes to show you that he is very popular, and therefore likely. I don’t even know anybody who hates Meta Knight or who would mind him being back. I say he’ll make it.


And with that concludes my Smash Bros character predictions. Like I said, I made a Newcomer edition recently. Check here for my thoughts on likely newcomer probability. If I missed anyone on that list (or God forbid this one) that you want me to discuss, let me know and I’ll tell you. And please leave a comment letting me know if you agree with me or not.

I’m SBox180. Thanks for reading!

2 thoughts on “SBox Soapbox: Super Smash Bros. 4 Character Probability (Veteran edition)”

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