The SBox SoapBox: Super Smash Bros. 4 Character Probability (Newcomer edition)

 

Welcome to the first ever Sbox Soapbox!

One of the most anticipated games for the Nintendo platforms is Super Smash Bros for 3DS and Wii U. As the release date draws closer, the hype grows stronger. However, the best part of any Smash Bros game is, of course, deciding who will get in.

Today saw the announcement of two brand new challengers and a returning veteran. Because of this I decided to to take a look at what is left of our unannounced characters and see how their chances of inclusion lay currently. Since Smash Bros for 3DS is only 3 months away, it won’t be long before the entire roster is revealed to us. So it’s time to weigh out our options. In the words of Sherlock Holmes, “When you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains must be the truth”.

This will be 2 parts: 1 for newcomers and 1 for veterans. This version will cover the newcomers as this is easier to predict. I will cover an assortment of highly requested characters that have yet to be confirmed and give them a percent rating based on their probability along with a short description of my reasoning. Obviously, I won’t get every requested newcomer, as there are hundreds of those. I’m only covering some of the most prevalent.

Let’s do this folks!

Mewtwo (Probability: 90%)

Yes, I am counting Mewtwo as a newcomer. He wasn’t in Brawl and therefore would be considered new.

I am thoroughly convinced that Mewtwo will be in the game with only one factor against him. The only thing that could be in Mewtwo’s way is the current amount of Pokemon already announced. We already have Pikachu, Charizard, Lucario and Greninja. Usually there are only 4 slots for Pokemon characters, and Jigglypuff will most likely have seniority over Mewtwo if it comes down to it. However, if Mario can have 6 characters, so can Pokemon. Mewtwo is probably the most requested character- period. He already has a move-set to work with. He manages to remain relevant all these years through both the video games and the anime. He was even in Project M. I have every reason to believe that he is a shoe-in.

Ridley (Probability: 85%)

Ridley is the most controversial character request ever. You’re either the most die-hard believer in Ridley’s inclusion, or you think that it’s downright impossible. I’m sure you all have heard all the reasons he should and shouldn’t be considered. He has a lot against him from his size to the fact that he’s an established boss character throughout Smash Bros. Then again, he is first-party, Smash Bros isn’t canon to size at all, there’s a lot of fan demand, and Metroid deserves a second character. What put me over the edge though was that tease in the Nintendo Direct back in April. I’m almost certain that if Sakurai had that blunt of a tease for Ridley, then I have reason to believe this character is more than just a boss.

Krystal (Probability: 35%)

I’m not the biggest follower of Star Fox so I can’t argue too much for what she would bring to the roster. However, I can definitely say WHY she would be in the roster. Like Ridley, she is first-party, substantially requested, and has a pretty big franchise to back her up. What might set her back, though, is the hate she has as a character. Sure she’s popular, but I can see a good bunch of backlash from her inclusion. This could make her a bit off-putting to Sakurai who just wants to make fans happy. Maybe she can get in because of the new Star Fox coming to Wii U, but she is quite a gamble.

Geno (Probability: 15%)

I think you can understand my reasoning for this decision. Geno has a massively big following and his inclusion would be unanimously accepted either because you don’t care or you care too much. The big issue blocking his chances is of course Square Enix. Geno is currently in a licensing limbo, which means he can barely be considered first-party nor third-party. (He’s practically zero-party). Plus, Geno would technically be considered a Mario character, and some would say that the Mario series is taking up a lot of room in on the roster. It’s disheartening to a lot of people, but Geno has very few chances left. However, since Geno data was found in Brawl, he still has that small ray of hope.

King K. Rool (Probability: 20%)

This was another popular choice, since Donkey Kong is rather under-represented for being Nintendo’s first franchise. King K. Rool is first-party with a moderate request rate and a good move-set potential. Plus, Smash Run includes Kremlings as villains, which could possibly be a tease. What holds him back is how irrelevant he is currently. For some reason, he is not in either of the 2 recent Donkey Kong Country games, which places him in a rough spot. And while he is a popular choice, he’s not too popular of a choice. Then again, when has relevancy stopped character inclusion before?

Bowser Jr. (Probablity: 45%)

Part of me wants to say 50% but I’m less hopeful of his chances. Granted, he’s brought up a lot. I can make a move-set for him in my sleep, he’s such a shoe-in. My only reservation is that (again) Mario as a series already takes up a pretty big bunch of the roster, especially if you count Yoshi. That puts his chances kind of lower than likely. Other than that, he’s a great choice.

Ghiradim (Probability: 40%)

As a Zelda n00b who has never played Skyward Sword, I have no real opinion for or against his inclusion. He can utilizes melee attacks, swordplay and dark magic. Even to me that sounds awesome! He seems to have a considerably high campaign for inclusion, and Zelda is a series that could use a newcomer. The 2 things holding him back to me are the Twilight Princess designs of Zelda and Link and the fact that there are already 4 Zelda characters on the roster. (5 if and when Ganon is announced). Though I will concede that Toon Link defeats the first argument. I guess he has a pretty good shot.

Shulk (Probability: 70%)

This is a Gematsu character prediction. Depending how you feel about the rumored leak, Shulk could have a pretty good chance. (They were wrong about Chrom, though). Xenoblade Chronicle was a big deal for the Wii and there’s even a Xenoblade game coming to Wii U. He has a good amount of supporters. I have no experience with the series, but I know he’ll have a pretty good move-set going for him. Honestly, I see no reason he shouldn’t get in.

All Third-Party Characters (Probability: 10%)

Finally I will touch on the third-party candidates. I know some of you might question my judgement, but I honestly don’t see there being any more third-party characters. Back when Pac-Man was revealed, Sakurai’s wording suggested that he was the last third-party inclusion (at least it sounded like that to me). He also stated before that there won’t be that many third-party characters. Rayman being announced as a non-assist trophy doesn’t help much either. Granted, anything is possible when it comes to Smash Bros, but I wouldn’t get my hopes up… But if there is, I would say Bayonetta, Simon Belmont, Sora, and Ryu Hayabusa are the most likely.


Those are my thoughts on newcomers. Please join me for my veteran predictions coming soon. If I left anyone out that you want me to discuss, let me know and I’ll give my thoughts on their probability.

I’m SBox180. Thanks for reading!

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